05/05/06
Commentary:
Cinco de Mayo
Cinco de Mayo
commemorates Mexico's victory
over the French army at Puebla on May 5, 1862.
It is widely celebrated in this country, and today
the stock market joined in.
For Gilder stocks the celebration was a little
quieter. That's appropriate, though, since in
Mexico, Cinco de Mayo is a more modest affair
than here, where it is
becoming
the
Hispanic
Saint Patrick's Day.
Myself, I celebrated it two days ago, at a Mexican
restaurant, where it turned out the bartender was
a native of Puebla. I perhaps spent more time
researching Mexican history with him than I
should have. By the end I was in no shape to do
a weekly update of the GTI. It was a good idea of
mine to celebrate Wednesday instead of today.
Also in fiesta mode this week, though still a far
cry from the
good old days, were the Wavoids.
Wave Systems (WAVX) went above $1.00 for the
first time in eight months. It was up 15% for the
week and is up 67% in six weeks. WAVX is not
in the GTI, probably only because GG is on the
Board and can't recommend it. But the stock is
a widely held sentimental favorite in Gilderland.
Ben
Bernanke, on the other hand, is probably all
partied out. It is
said that in time everyone will be
famous for 15 minutes. Perhaps everyone will
also do something that moves the market. This
week it was the turn of the CNBC Money Honey,
Maria Bartiromo.
How did she loosen the Chairman's tongue?
See below. A picture is worth a thousand words.
For an interesting riff on the affair, visit Victor
Niederhoffer's Daily Speculations site. Scroll
down until you come to the photo. (And while
you're at it read about the birth of his son,
Aubrey
Darwin Niederhoffer. Congratulations to Victor,
who after six daughters now has a son to carry
on his
athletic tradition.)
The Week Day by Day:
A two-day fiesta to
end the week. ĦQue bueno!
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| FNSR | + 11.7% | IKAN | - 9.2% |
| LNOP | + 9.5% | PMCS | - 7.9% |
| TSM | + 7.4% | ADI | - 5.5% |
| AMD | + 6.4% | EQIX | - 4.2% |
| XLNX | + 5.3% | KEYW | - 2.5% |
Finisar (FNSR) takes
over the number one spot,
up 152% for the year. Intel (INTC) continues to
bring up the rear, down 22%.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 1.4%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 0.9%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 1.2%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | 28.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 12.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| Last 52 wks | 56% | 19% | 13% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 72% | - 54% | - 13% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
378% | 110% | 71% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | 8.1% | 37.9% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 13.3% | 15.1% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
24% | 31% | 73% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
252% | 116% | 15% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
0% |
GLW |
44% |
QCOM |
22% |
||
|
ALTR |
18% |
IKAN |
14% |
S |
7% |
||
|
AMD |
13% |
INTC |
- 22% |
SIGM |
- 7% |
||
|
BRCM |
31% |
KEYW |
22% |
SMI |
15% |
||
|
BWNG |
135% |
LNOP |
97% |
SYNA |
7% |
||
|
CPHD |
3% |
MVIS |
6% |
TSM |
14% |
||
|
ENER * |
9% |
NETL |
45% |
TXN |
9% |
||
|
EQIX |
55% |
NSM |
18% |
XLNX |
16% |
||
|
FLEX |
14% |
PCMS * |
- 14% |
ZRAN |
74% |
||
|
FNSR |
152% |
PWER |
22% |
(*)
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PCMS 4/7).
Return is while in GTI only.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There are now 29 companies in the GTI.
They are listed, with year-to-date returns,
at the bottom of the left hand column.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
20 up, 9 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
| 2006 to date | 2.6% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
| 2006 to date | 11 of 18 | 61% |