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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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Department of Physical Models
10/23/04
James Sogi:
Dow Waves
Surfers look at wave height and period. For example 4-6 feet at a 14 second interval. That is the height and period of the open ocean sine wave.
The Dow has a height of 541-651 with a period 17 for rises and 31 days for declines.
| Date | Level | Points | Days |
| 02/11/04 | 10,738 | ||
| 03/24/04 | 10,048 | -690 | 29 |
| 04/06/04 | 10,571 | 523 | 9 |
| 05/17/04 | 9907 | -664 | 28 |
| 06/23/04 | 10,480 | 573 | 25 |
| 08/12/04 | 9815 | -665 | 35 |
| 09/07/04 | 10,343 | 528 | 17 |
| 10/22/04 | 9758 | -585 | 33 |
| Average decline | -651 | 31 | |
| Average rise | 541 | 17 | |
Although we broke 9781 that the pros were watching, the waves show that in days we are just over average decline period and in points about 70 points short of the average decline this year. The rises have been quicker and shorter, so far.
A few other things we look at are the tide and wind and swell direction. With these 5 pieces of information I can predict with a good enough accuracy the optimum place and time to go surf to earn me the moniker of "surf guru".
My last few bullish market calls have been all wrong, so the pros will fade me 5 to 1 as this stuff may be random mumbo lacking proper testing as honorable chair always reminds me. An unskilled newbie surfer is usually referred to as a "kook".
*Experientia docet* - /Experience is the best teacher
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